Hvordan arbejder en trendforsker? Hvad er en trend egentlig? Hvorfor og hvordan bliver man trendforsker? Og hvordan spotter og analyserer de selv trends?

Daniel Burrus, amerikansk foredragsholder og direktør for Burrus Research der arbejder med forskning i innovation og teknologi, deler her sine erfaringer.

Dette er et lille uddrag af bogen ’Trendsociologi v. 2.0’ udgivet af pej gruppen. Køb bogen her.

Why and how did you become a futurist?

My second year in college I became the first undergraduate in the U.S. to direct a federal research grant and I went on to teach biology and physics for a number of years before starting my first company and I was always interested in the future impact of technology innovations.  In 1983, I started Burrus Research and I have dedicated my professional career to this field since that time.

Why is it important to forecast trends?

The ability to see disruptions, problems, and new opportunities before they happen provides a very big advantage. I am a strategic advisor to CEOs and executive teams from many of the Fortune 500 companies helping them to use the predictability of ‘hard trends’ to their advantage. They all place a high value on seeing the future first.

How do you define the concept of a trend?

Thirty years ago, I pioneered my methodology of separating what I call hard trends (trends that will happen) from soft trends (trends that might happen) and that is how I have been able to have a globally recognised track record of accurate predictions over the decades. This methodology has changed how many companies including IBM, Deloitte, GE, and others plan their future.

Which types of trends interest you the most?

I make both short and long range trend forecasts and since technology impacts how we live, work, and play, I enjoy them all. What I am most interested in is using hard trends to actively shape the future.

How and where do you discover trends?

My research company, Burrus Research, has been researching global innovations in all areas of science and technology and we use that research to identify the hard trends that will shape the future for over thirty years.

I sommeren 2015 udgav pej gruppen den ultimative grundbog i trendforskning. Da den er en grundbog får den (forhåbentlig) en lang levetid.

Bogen består af tre dele:

1. Teori om og praktisk beskrivelse af, hvad en trend er, hvordan den spredes og hvilken effekt den kan have. Her er det alt lige fra de store gigatrends til de små døgnfluer, der er dækket ind ligesom industritrends, kategoritrends, forbrugertrends mv. beskrives.

2. Interview med 17 af verdens bedste trendforskere ud fra grundlæggende spørgsmål om, hvordan de definerer en trend, hvordan de arbejder med dem og hvordan de er endt i denne profession.

3. Praktisk procesbeskrivelse (5 faset proces) med konkrete metoder og værktøjer til selv at arbejde med trends.

Over de kommende måneder vil jeg (og pej gruppens medier både online og offline) dele lidt mere af indholdet med læserne / følgerne og her er således første lille historie baseret på de mange interviews.

Skulle der være nogen, der er interesseret i at få hele bogen i hånden selv (den er på 400 sider), så kan den købes her